Not So Fast, My Friend

Pre-season rankings are about as relevant as NASCAR. There are some people who will absolutely swear by them, while the rest of the country sort of looks at it like, “eh…did Danica Patrick pose for Playboy yet?” Unfortunately, no, she has not, to my knowledge at least. Heff needs to work some magic on that one. Pre-season rankings…right. Take football for example. Notre Dame was unranked to begin the season, and look at them now? Irish eyes are smiling (cheesing would be a better term) as hard as ever. Michigan and Michigan State were both pre-season top fifteen in the country. Michigan went 8-4 in the regular season, and Sparty, well, yeah. No one ever knows if pre-season rankings will turn into post-season results. So let this message be very clear to Michigan basketball fans: slow down.

It’s been a long time since the Wolverines were in a Final Four: 1993 if we are being technical, but those banners (like Chris Webber’s pride) are gone. The latest college basketball polls have the Wolverines at the number three spot in America. That is, simply put, too high.

Chris Webber photo credit: besombebody.blog.com

Michigan has a good basketball program. Years of inconsistent coaching and play have seemingly been erased by John Beilein. He has brought stability and talent to a program whose most notable alum in the last fifteen years is…uhh…Robert Traylor? You get the point. Michigan has been bad for a long time now. Finally it seems those days are behind the Wolverines. But again, be very wary of what others tell you, particularly when they tell you how good you are.

It’s easy to buy into hype, especially when there hasn’t been any hype since the Fab 5. There are plenty of Michigan fans out there who, with this latest ranking, are ready to declare a return to the Final Four for Big Blue. And while that may happen (no one knows), it isn’t advisable to bet on just yet. There are plenty of hoops and ladders to go through for the Wolverines. I’ll tell you what I’ve told anyone who is willing to listen. While I don’t think they are good enough to be number three in America, I also don’t think they will get touched before the B1G starts conference play.

Tomorrow, the Wolverines face their most formidable task before the conference slate begins: North Carolina State. The Wolfpack are a team similar to Michigan, in that they both were ranked too high to begin the year. Unlike Michigan, however, NC State has already proven they are not as good as their ranking. The Wolfpack lost in last years Sweet 16 to eventual national runner-up Kansas. It was a great game, decided by three points, thus jolting them into immediate conversation regarding this seasons powerhouses. Michigan, however, lost in the opening round to Ohio. Rather different results from rather similar teams. That said, I believe Michigan is the better team, and should win tomorrow.

The Wolverines have the easiest road to an undefeated start of all the B1G powers. While it may be a down year in college football for the B1G, the same cannot be said for basketball. There are four potential national champions in the conference. That is not a typo. Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan all have the ability to cut down the nets this year in Atlanta. Michigan is the second highest ranked out of those four. They are also, in my opinion, the least likely to win it all.

The fact is Michigan has just not been there. They don’t have the experience. Sure there are counters to that argument. Take Kentucky for example. They’ve won consistently with freshman who have never been there before. But their coach has. And let me ask you this: Is John Wall or Anthony Davis suiting up for the Maize and Blue anytime soon? No. Michigan has good players that, when they play together, can challenge anyone in the country. But they are mighty young, with very little big game experience. That will change by years end, and it starts tomorrow.

Trey Burke (left) and Tim Hardaway Jr. photo credit: mlive.com

You win in college basketball with great guards. That has been established, disputed, and proven over years and years; it’s not a small sample size. Michigan has very good guards. What’s separating them from being great guards is a little hardware (no, the pre-season NIT does not count). Burke and Hardaway Jr. are as good as any backcourt in America. They haven’t gotten a lot of chances to shine on national television. They’ve got one tomorrow. Michigan will go as they go, so watch them tomorrow. See how they handle themselves. See if they’ll get in the lane and take a charge, or if they’ll argue with the refs on what they think is a blown call (insert Daniel Horton joke here). See if they play unselfishly, and give up an open shot for a good shot. And most importantly, if they are to lose, see how they act. You can hate losing, absolutely, but you have to learn how to lose before you learn how to win. Hopefully that will stir some things up.