If...

"If" is an interesting word. It normally provides a basis for completely irrelevant arguments. For example: if the Lions were really bad, they would have lost to the Cardinals yesterday. But the Lions aren't really bad, so they couldn't possibly lose to a team that had lost nine straight, and got blanked last week fifty-eight to zip. "If" only. But surprisingly, this article will not rip the honolulu blue and silver. No, we are going to give them a while to search for their competitive soul. Rather, this article will be used to make my boldest prediction yet, but only thanks to the word "if." This time though, the "if" will hinge upon events that have not happened yet, as opposed to those that have already happened. It's a little confusing, so I promise to explain it. But it makes no sense without having a base event, upon which I am going to make this prediction. That event happened last week. Welcome back, Anibal.

Mike Illitch has no fears, well baseball wise, at least. The owner dishes out money like it actually grows on trees. He may have set himself up to fail with this last one. Five years and eighty million dollars for Anibal Sanchez; mighty steep for a number four starter. But this time it makes sense. Sanchez proved down the stretch that he was indeed worth the money, if athletes can even be worth that kind of money. The problem that could arise is the contracts of the top three starters, when their contracts end. You can expect Verlander, Scherzer, and Fister to all approach/top $100 million dollars in value, with the taco bell monster probably approaching $200 million.

Anibal Sanchez inked himself a 5 yr/$80 million dollar contract. photo credit: mlbreports.com

That's okay though. Yay for no salary cap. And when you've got the money (and Illitch clearly does), who dares to stop you? Illitch wants a winner so bad he appears willing to bankrupt himself to get it. I haven't seen his income statement, but I imagine its funds may be assigned elsewhere rather quickly.

So Sanchez is back in Detroit. The legend will continue to grow. The questions will continue to arise, many asking if Sanchez and Omar Infante are the same person. But what the Sanchez signing does for the Tigers is simple: no matter how much money Earvin "Magic" and the Dodgers plans to throw at free agents, no matter how many last minute, crazy signings their rivals across the freeway make, the Tigers are the favorite to win the World Series. Vegas's odds will likely change by the time opening day comes. But my first (way, way, way less bold) prediction is that the Tigers will have the best odds to win the whole thing. They have four All-Star caliber starters and a fifth starter with All-Star caliber stuff. I feel like a lot of people hear that term and don't know what it means, so I'll explain it (if you do know, skip down to the next paragraph). Drew Smyly's "stuff" is his pitching repertoire. And while he may not be ready just yet, his pitches have the ability to turn him into an All-Star.

So our series of "ifs" begin. "If" number one: if the Tigers make the right move in dealing Rick Porcello...

The Tigers now have the best problem in baseball: they have too many starting pitchers. You can count the teams with this problem on one finger. It doesn't happen in the big leagues except for every once in a while. That once in a while is very rare. But it's here. And now we get to sit back and watch Dave Dombrowski work his magic. There are a few options with Porcello, all of which hinge on a trade, and all of a which create our first "if." If I were Dombrowski, I would sit down Porcello, Brennan Boesch, Avisail Garcia, and Jhonny Peralta, put some ribbon around them, and send them in a gift bag to the Texas Rangers. I'd ask for Elvis Andrus in return. It may be a lot to give up. But Porcello's overrated, Boesch is...haha, and Peralta is old. He may be solid, but he's old, and an upgrade would be nice, if they can get it for the right price. Garcia is a tremendous young player, but so is Nick Castellanos, and there may only be room for one of them, anyway. Other moves concerning Porcello that would please me are acquiring either a nice young outfielder or a closer. Any of those three moves, and you can put a check next to our first "if."

"If" number two: if the Tigers starting pitchers stay healthy...

No one can question their talent. The top four for Detroit are better than any other in baseball. Don't give me the "there as good as any," because they are flat out better. Verlander is the best number one pitcher in the game. Scherzer is the best number two pitcher in the game. Fister is by far the best number three pitcher in the game. And Sanchez...well, they just spent eighty million dollars on a number four starter. He's the best number four in the game. Now the challenge is to keep them healthy, all year long. If those four stay healthy, then our second "if" is all set.

Justin Verlander's supporting cast (from left): Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez photo credit: cbssports.com

"If" number three: if the Tigers shore up the back end of their bullpen...

This can happen a few different ways. Bruce Rondon may be the answer. The fireballing kid could come in and be the closer, right away. Probably not going to happen without at least a few hiccups, but it's possible. More likely though, the Tigers will acquire a closer; or at least they will acquire a reliever who could take over if Rondon slips. This is the biggest need in my opinion. You could get by with Peralta, and you could get by with the outfielders you have on the roster. But Detroit needs back-end bullpen help. If they get it, well now we're cooking with fire.

That's it. Those three little things and my prediction is born. Now this is as bold a prediction as I've made. It doesn't make a lot of sense because only one of the players has accomplished the feat I think all of them will accomplish. Thank you for waiting patiently. If the Tigers make a good move with Porcello, if the starting pitchers stay healthy, and if the Tigers set the back end of their bullpen, then history will be made this year. My prediction is that the 2013 Detroit Tigers will join the 1971 Baltimore Orioles as the only two teams in big league history with four twenty game winners on one pitching staff. Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, and Sanchez would join Palmer, McNally, Ceullar, and Dobson atop the Mount Rushmore of pitching staffs. I guess we'll see "if" I'm right.

Angels In The Outfield

Josh Hamilton is reportedly taking his talents to LA. photo credit: thebiglead.com

Turn the spotlight toward Los Angeles, rumor has it tinseltown just got a little more tatted up. Josh Hamilton has reportedly signed with the Angels. Let's hope the reports are right, cause otherwise this is a giant waste of time. And since it's on the internet, it must be true (insert french model "bonjour" joke here). Since the sports world doesn't spend enough time talking about LA already, this ought to do the trick. Even the Lakers are sick of the attention they've been getting. Hell, if the Pistons started the season 9-13, it may have been progress. The Lakers start the season poorly, they fire their coach. I guess there may be a difference in expectations.

That's exactly what the Angels now have: expectations. The Angels have had expectations for a while, actually. They inked Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson last year. They traded for Zack Grienke. They have the greatest general since Patton in Mike Trout (he does dominate WAR). And now (reportedly) they have Josh Hamilton. Ah the beauties of no salary cap. But what does this move do for the fightin' rally monkeys? At first glance, most immediate responses will gravitate in the direction of excitement, I'd think. If I were an Angels fan, I'd be excited. Lose Torii Hunter, gain Josh Hamilton. The Rangers have been stagnant so far, sans moving Michael Young. They've lost Mike Napoli. It looks like they are about to lose Ryan Dempster. And oh yeah, they lost that Hamilton fellow. Could the evil empire be heading towards the setting sun, not the rising sun?

Probably not...let's be realistic. The only person with more money than the Yankees is Warren Buffet. And since he doesn't appear to be interested in buying a baseball team, the Angels can firmly take the grasp as the other team in sports willing to stop at nothing until they buy a championship. I read an article this morning on Chauncey Billups. Now, admittedly, there is no athlete who I have a greater respect for than Chauncey; I absolutely love him and absolutely hate (still) Joe Dumars for that trade. Chauncey is not really relevant to the Angels. But the article brought up the point that the '04-'05 Pistons could end up being the last team in the NBA to win a title without a superstar, forever. I'm nearly positive there won't be another in basketball. And with moves like this, it's starting to cloud the future for a team like that to do it in baseball. With all of these things to consider, I don't think this makes the Angels the front runner for anything.

Baseball is weird. Teams like Oakland can catch fire in a mere second and before you know it...oh no, the Tigers eliminated them, just kidding. But seriously, start up teams make runs in baseball like no other sport. Take the Orioles, for example. Where did that come from? You can even use Oakland, since Baltimore didn't advance either. The point is, the team that just throws money at talent doesn't always win. There's something to be said for doing it the hard way. You draft players, build them in your system, hire the right manager, and before you know you raise a trophy. There are certainly counter examples. The Yankees have won twenty-seven world championships. That's a lot. But even the Yankees seem to be missing out on the highest priced talent these days. Maybe they're starting to figure out that isn't necessarily the best way to accomplish what you want.

The Angels are a weird case though because they won a title doing it the hard way not too long ago. They have a world class manager in Mike Scoscia, and they have developed talent in their system that has succeeded at the major league level. They drafted Trout. They drafted a guy like Mark Trumbo. So that's why this deal just seems to surprise me a little bit. Josh Hamilton is a great player, as is Albert Pujols. They can do things I can't even do in a video game. They're top tier talent. But they aren't going to be top tier talent for much longer. Pujols showed age last year (whatever his age may be), as did Hamilton. And while Hamilton did not get the super-long deal Pujols did, that's a lot of money for a guy who struggled down the stretch and isn't getting any younger.

Can the Angels win a World Series next year? Yes. Any team that has a top four of Trout, Howie Kendrick, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton can win it all. That's a guess on Kendrick by the way, someone has to replace Torii. But the Angels didn't even make the playoffs last year. Not only that, they had two teams finish ahead of them in their own division. They lost a lot of pitching. Yeah they still have Weaver and Wilson, and now Tommy Hanson, but what have those guys ever won? Wilson pitched in the World Series a couple of times, he gets that to his credit, but he isn't their ace. No, that would be the kid brother of the former Tiger great Jeff Weaver. This is a team who said they couldn't afford to go out and sign a big name pitcher like Zack Grienke, yet they go out and sign Josh Hamilton? For $125 million? Something is not right.

Josh Hamilton joins Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout in the LA outfield. photo credit: bleacherreport.com

The move makes the Angels better, no question. I'm just not sure how much better it actually makes them. Hamilton is going to be a similar player to Torii Hunter. He's going to hit more home runs, yes. His role is different than Hunter's. But I don't think he's better than Torii defensively. I don't think he is a better teammate than Hunter. That may not be fair of me to say since I'm not his teammate, but Hamilton doesn't seem to be in the news for his leadership. The move, for me, means the Angels are saying this: This is our chance to win it, and if we fail, oh well, we went down trying. It's a fine strategy and a lot of teams do it. The Tigers may even be doing it. But for Los Angeles, I'm just not sure it's warranted. The Angels have arguably the greatest young talent baseball has seen since ever. Why not keep that money and build around him? I guess you could still do that in the future, there is no salary cap, but $125 million? That's the kind of thing you give to a full-proof investment and that is not what Josh Hamilton is.

From a personal standpoint, I'm not about to criticize Hamilton. Everyone makes mistakes in life and I'm sure he's a fine person who just needed to grow up a bit. But from a business standpoint you HAVE to look at it more in depth. You are taking a guy who has drug and alcohol issues, who relapsed LAST YEAR after being sober for a long period of time, and you are going to give him $125 million to come play baseball in southern California? Temptation grows on trees out there, literally. I'm sure it's written in his (reported) contract that he can't mess up or it's night night. But I'd be just a little bit more cautious about that one.

For Hamilton though, the move makes total sense. He's going somewhere where he doesn't have to be the guy. Pujols and Trout have that covered. He doesn't have to play centerfield anymore. If he strikes out, there is someone in the lineup who can pick him up. He left a sinking ship for greener pastures. The Rangers have apparently decided to sail the Bermuda Triangle, because they could not seem more lost at this point. For Josh Hamilton, his expectations of winning a championship are now more realistic than they were yesterday.

It all goes back to expectations. This move makes the Angels better, yes. It gives them a great chance at a winner. I don't think it makes them better than the Tigers. I don't think it makes them better than San Francisco. And in a sport where tradition rules, that division belongs to the Rangers until the season is over and they didn't win it. One thing is for sure though. You can keep that spotlight in the exact same place, cause it's not going anywhere.

Time Is Ticking

I checked the stats. Jimmy Howard's goals against average actually is the lowest in the NHL right now. So for my critical piece of the week, it's time to analyze the other most scrutinized player in Detroit sports: Matthew Stafford. If Sunday night was any indication, the Lions may be in trouble. Who are we kidding? Substitute "motor city" for "river city" and the music man has been singing about the Lions all year long. This year for the honolulu blue is as lost as Atlantis. That said, there is everything to gain in the next three weeks.

Matthew Stafford loses his grip on the ball in Sunday's loss to the Packers photo credit: newstimes.com

The Lions are bad. Get rid of the argument that goes, "they've lost a bunch of close games, they aren't that bad." Good teams win close games; it's what makes them good. Good teams have a quarterback who drives the ball down the field in the fourth quarter, a defense who makes the big stop when they need it, and a coach who makes the right calls. Quick synopsis of Sunday night: no, no, and no. All three aspects, all failed with grounded colors. It shouldn't be a surprise at this point. The Lions are 4-9. Any hope of the playoffs vanished with the illegal challenge flag. They probably vanished before that. So here's the question now: is what we have good enough to get us to where we want go?

That's a question for Martin Mayhew. No matter how many times fans can scream "draft defense you moron," the final decision is his. I'd argue that almost 50% of Lions' fans think they can do a better job than Mayhew. Some of them might be right. But you're not going to get that chance. Mayhew drafted Stafford. For one year, he played with a cocky attitude, he was healthy, and he threw touchdowns. Apparently that means go ahead and fling the ball with your wrist whenever you want because you are God's gift to football.

Matthew Stafford celebrates his first quarter touchdown in Sunday's loss to Green Bay photo credit: i4u.com

It's not ALL Stafford's fault. However, this loss points the finger right at number nine. That fumble changed a lot of people's views on Stafford, whether they are willing to admit it or not. The Lions were up 14-3 and driving...in Lambeau...in the snow. That doesn't even happen in the movies. They had a chance to stomp on Green Bay's throat. Instead they held the door open for the Packers and seated them in first class. I get it was a fluke play, it doesn't happen very often, and it probably doesn't happen if it's not thirty-three degrees outside. But it happened. And again that play didn't lose the game for Detroit. But when you lose a game like that, you look to the quarterback. That's how it has always gone and that's how it will continue to go...forever. At the end of the day, he's the one with the ball in his hands the most. He's the one who can bring his team back from that awful moment and win the game. And in this case, he's the one who didn't.

Stafford has an immense amount of physical ability. It's scary how good this guy could be. He has an AK-47 attached to his right shoulder. Yet for some odd reason, he doesn't seem to use it. Stafford flips more balls up in the air than any quarterback I have ever seen. I'm tired of it. He looks like a pansy when he does it. He looks like he's afraid to step up and be a quarterback. Sometimes he has to do it. Most times he doesn't. It's a huge problem for Stafford. If he doesn't fix it, I'm not sure he should be the long term quarterback of the Lions.

Difficult to agree with me after the dude racked up 5,000 yards last year, isn't it? Well, when you throw it forty-five times a game, you are likely to pick up some yards. But why are we anointing him as the answer after one good year? They went 10-6 and lost in the first round of the playoffs. That's a bad year for Tom Brady. If you really want the Lions to exit the rut they've been in since, oh I don't know, forever, then maybe it's time you start holding them a little bit more accountable. They had a nice year last year for where they were as an organization. Now they're back to the same bad habits of losing leads and losing fans. It starts with the quarterback, and Stafford has to figure it out...now.

It seems lately that for every good throw Stafford makes, there is a back foot lob ten feet behind Tony Scheffler. STEP INTO THE DAMN THROW. I've screamed it at my television far too many times. He's too talented to be making mistakes that are expected of a high school signal caller. This is the NFL, son. People make bank to laugh at those throws and take them to the house. If you want to be the franchise quarterback, then you better make a better effort to look like you belong. Right now Stafford does not look like he belongs. That is harsh and true, it is. He looks out of place, minus two or three drives per game. He doesn't make the right decisions, he throws balls that would sail over Shaq, and he can't even celebrate a touchdown the right way. Okay the last one was a joke, but he really should learn not to slip before the celebration. The first two points I stick by, though. He has to make better decisions and learn that you can't fling the ball up ten times a game. Two or three times, okay sure. But ten times? No. Not now, not ever.

I'm not saying abandon ship on Stafford. He's too good when he wants to be. But it's time we started looking at the Lions as what they are, not what they were a year ago. They are a bad team with little to no leadership. They have no one who has ever won anything. Their games seem to have a pattern to them. Calvin Johnson is double teamed from the start, so they try and stay away from him. Then, before you know it, they are down ten with four minutes to go. Next they force the ball to Calvin, and as insane an idea as it is, holy s*it he catches it...almost every time. And then they lose. That's not how every loss goes, but more than a few have gone like that.

Whoever decides the plays (Scott Linehan) at the end of the game needs to figure one thing out. If you are going to throw the ball to anyone other than 81, that player better be wide open. I'd rather have Calvin against two or three defenders than anyone else on the Lions against one defender. I really believe that. And on fourth and ten with the game on the line, the ball needs to go to 81. If it doesn't, then you need to be fired. Or better yet Matthew, how bout you make a decision for once. How bout you say, "I've got the best non-qb in the league, and if we need a play he's going to get it." That would go a long way for me. But I'm gonna sit here and criticize you for as long as you are going to take shots down the field, and throw it behind Scheffler, when we have one play to get it right.

Time is ticking Matthew. As most analysts will tell you, NFL means "Not For Long." You've got all the ability in the world. You've got the tools to get yourself to Canton, and to get this team to a Super Bowl. Start acting like it, and start playing like it. There's three weeks left to start doing things right, and gain some steam going into next year. No better time than the present.